United States of America Scoping: Spend Away?

Spend Away?

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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April 29, 2021

Spend Away?

"My fellow Americans … trickle-down economics has never worked."

That's how President Joe Biden attempted to sell his latest big spending initiative—comprised of $1.8 trillion for universal pre-kindergarten, paid family leave, two years of free community college, support for child care, and more—in his first address to a joint session of Congress as President Wednesday night. As this latest proposal follows a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill and a roughly $2 trillion infrastructure plan, Washington Post columnist Dan Balz writes that "[t]ogether," these initiatives "represent the most dramatic shift in federal economic and social welfare policy since Ronald Reagan was elected 40 years ago."

They have been met with predictable pushback. At The Wall Street Journal, former George W. Bush strategist Karl Rove calls the accompanying tax increases "confiscatory." The paper's editorial board is more ideologically caustic, warning that Biden's latest proposal is "about mainlining benefits to middle-class families so they become addicted to government—and to the Democratic Party that has become the promoting agent of government."

But even on the right, not everyone is as alarmed as one might expect. At Politico Magazine, conservative commentator Rich Lowry writes that while Republican lawmakers may offer traditional critiques, we have not witnessed a ferocious backlash of the type that arose against President Obama's much smaller, $789-billion stimulus package after the 2008 financial crisis. "What happened to the GOP" and its deficit vigilance? Lowry asks. "The short answer is Donald Trump," who as President "taught Republicans how to relax and love expansionary fiscal policy."

Facing less-intense resistance, Biden is forging ahead, seeking to "leverag[e] the thinnest possible political majority into very large accomplishments," Brookings Senior Fellow William Galston tells the Post's Balz.

The Future of Covid-19: Exponential Decline

Covid-19 has spread exponentially, and that's how it will fade, University of Maryland, Baltimore County public-health Prof. Zoë M. McLaren writes for The New York Times, citing a steep decline in daily new infections in the US since January. "Every case of Covid-19 that is prevented cuts off transmission chains, which prevents many more cases down the line," McLaren notes.

There's a flip side to the exponential math: Cases drop sharply when their total number is high but more slowly when it is low. "The end of the pandemic will therefore probably look like this," McLaren writes: "A steep drop in cases followed by a longer period of low numbers of cases, though cases will rise again if people ease up on precautions too soon." Still, success against the virus can be self perpetuating, especially when vaccine-induced immunity limits the transmission rate. In the meantime, basic precautions will help. "The United States is still a long way from reaching herd immunity," McLaren writes, "but things could improve a lot before then. The worst of the pandemic may be over sooner than you think."

Myanmar as a Test for the Region

At a summit last weekend, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued a consensus statement calling for an end to violence in Myanmar and said it would appoint a special envoy to the country, but Rebecca Ratcliffe reports for The Guardian that Human Rights Watch wants to see the killing of protesters stop before anyone indulges in self-congratulation. (Since the weekend, an armed ethnic-minority militia has reportedly attacked an army outpost, while Myanmar's ruling junta appears not to be fully on board with the ASEAN joint statement, referring to its bullet points as "suggestions.")

Nikkei Asia lauds the announcement by a regional coalition that has shied away from criticizing its members' internal affairs, calling for the new envoy to be put in place quickly. But at the same paper, Thitinan Pongsudhirak warns that "the 10-member bloc risks being taken for a ride by its rogue member." Some member countries have offered muted responses to Myanmar's violence, Pongsudhirak writes, but with Myanmar's opposition movement retaining support and challenging any post-coup assumptions that "what is done is done," ASEAN may need "new thinking" in how to approach the chaos.

Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism after Afghanistan

For two decades, the US mission in Afghanistan has conflated counterinsurgency with counterterrorism, Steven Metz writes for Defense One, as the campaign has seemed to be predicated on the notion that by beating back Taliban insurgents and building up the government in Kabul (a counterinsurgency project), US and allied forces could deny al Qaeda terrorists a safe haven, accomplishing a counterterrorist aim. Now that the US will withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by this coming Sept. 11, Metz writes that the experience of the last 20 years should change American strategy.

"How then should the United States think about counterinsurgency?" Metz asks. "In a word, realistically. First, Americans should admit that today's terrorists do not need physical sanctuary, so trying to control every isolated patch of territory on earth is not worth the cost even if it could be done. Second, as heartbreaking as it would be to see evil movements like the Taliban, the Islamic State, or al Qaeda in control of all or part of a nation, the United States must base counterinsurgency support on the viability of the partner government, not the pathology of the insurgents. If a government is truly dedicated to altering the system that gave rise to insurgency and shares basic American values, it might deserve help. Otherwise, the United States should resist supporting a deeply flawed partner simply because its opponent is worse. This may ultimately be the most important strategic lesson of Afghanistan."